AfCFTA changes the game
The African Continental Free Trade Area is dismantling tariffs on 97 % of goods, setting the stage for a 28 % jump in intra-African freight demand by 2030. With freer trade comes an urgent need for regional distribution hubs that can bridge long distances and patchy infrastructure.
Hotspots to watch
| Market | Why it matters | Key statistics |
| Nigeria | Largest population, rapid e-commerce uptake | Online retail worth US $ 9.5 bn in 2025, CAGR 11.8 % to 2030 |
| Kenya | East Africa’s logistics gateway; new SEZ incentives | Emirates Logistics broke ground on a Tatu City facility in June 2025, lured by a 10 % corporate tax holiday. |
| Ghana | Political stability, expanding ports at Tema & Takoradi | Port container capacity doubled since 2019 (GPA data). |
| Botswana / Namibia | Efficient customs corridors to Gauteng; Walvis Bay port | Fast-track clearances reduce dwell time by ±30 %. |
Location strategies
- Spoke-and-hub – Keep a mega-facility in Gauteng, add satellite depots in Lagos, Nairobi and Accra.
- Free-zone first – Start inside an SEZ to enjoy duty suspension and streamlined customs.
- JV model – Partner with a local 3PL for regulatory compliance and network reach.
Regulatory essentials
- Understand local content rules (e.g., Nigeria’s 40 % minimum for logistics contracts).
- Plan for duty-deferred or bonded warehousing where cash flow is tight.
- Track power-generation incentives — many governments now allow private solar farms feeding industrial parks.
Risk considerations
| Risk | Mitigation |
| Road congestion / poor last-mile | Use multi-story or urban cross-docks to shorten runs |
| Currency volatility | Price rentals in USD or euros with hedging options |
| Skills shortage | Incorporate training academies into the investment case |
Take-aways for South African operators
South Africa’s mature logistics know-how is an exportable asset. Regional demand for compliant, tech-forward warehouses is outstripping supply, giving first movers pricing power. An incremental approach — one high-impact project per sub-region — reduces exposure while building a continent-wide footprint ready for AfCFTA volumes.
